PrediKt®: A strategic approach to resource and demand modelling

   In times when Forces are under pressure to cut costs and deploy resources more effectively a resource and demand management tool provides significant benefit, underpinning strategic planning. It enables them to understand the impact of potential changes in resources, helps assess the risks associated with the proposed changes and improves the quality of decision making. Forces can then be confident that their resourcing models are sustainable, allowing them to deliver effective and efficient services that keep the public safe.

Deciding how resources should be allocated across the different functions of a Force is challenging, often underpinned by an allocation model based on objective and more subjective measures. How do you validate your model ie does it match reality? How do you decide in which business area to apply further reductions in officer numbers and how do you assess the likely impact? How do you understand how an increase in specific crime type will affect the performance of the team? In industry there is a long tradition of using workforce planning tools to simulate these types of changes although traditionally the police service has relied on professional judgement and experience. However recently there has been a move to a more analytic approach with a significant amount of work conducted by some Forces to model activity and determine how long it should take to undertake standard activities for example to investigate a crime.

This is a different, but complementary, component to Predictive Policing, where tools have been developed with sophisticated algorithms to identify where future crime events are most likely take place leading to more efficient resource deployment.

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